The dangers of death toll reporting

According to a report published by the online edition of the Lancet today, 100,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war. But it's the publication of the report rather than the report itself that is most interesting.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins and Columbia Universities in the USA, and Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, seem to have seriously attempted to estimate the death toll. Thirty-three clusters of households selected randomly across Iraq were asked about deaths before and after the war. The risk of death appeared to have risen 2.5-fold in this period, although the majority of violent deaths were in one cluster in the city of Fallujah. The researchers excluded this one cluster from their final figure, reducing the increase in risk to 1.5-fold - implying 'excess deaths' of 98,000 since the war started.

The authors of the report themselves admit there are many limitations with their study. Such a method would be problematic in a peaceful country - the additional complications created by the situation in Iraq were numerous. The figure also seems remarkably high compared to previous estimates - for example, it is between three and 10 times higher than the figure reported by the Iraq Body Count project. In fact the actual figure, according to the report's own statistics, may be anywhere between 8,000 and 195,000. So the figure of 100,000 may turn out to be correct, but must be treated with considerable scepticism at present.

However, the stated objective behind the publication of this report is more concerning. The study has been rush-released to coincide with the US presidential election. In an accompanying editorial, Lancet editor Richard Horton states that: 'Democratic imperialism has led to more deaths not fewer. This political and military failure continues to cause scores of casualties among non-combatants. It is a failure that deserves to be a serious subject for research. But this report is more than a piece of academic investigation.'

It is perfectly legitimate to be angry at the mess created by the coalition in Iraq, but is that the proper role for a medical journal whose reputation lies in its objectivity? And isn't there a danger of repeating the much-criticised error from Blair's 'dodgy dossier', that the proper caveats that accompany such a report will be forgotten in favour of presenting a Greater Truth?

The war in Iraq: civilian casualties, political responsibilities, Lancet, 29 October 2004

Saturday night, Sunday mourning

The very public displays of grief following the killing of Danielle Beccan, a 14-year-old schoolgirl, seemed to be more about local politicians in Nottingham trying to find a means of connecting with the public rather than a real attempt to mourn someone's passing. Moreover, the pressure placed upon parents, teachers and pupils to go along with the commemorations, even if they felt them inappropriate, is a painful demonstration of the way in which the politics of emotion can be used to suppress debate.

spiked-life | Article | Saturday night, Sunday mourning

Gambling on urban renewal

It would take the toss of a coin to decide which is worse: a government that wants to stop us doing things that are 'bad' for us, such as gambling; or a government that is betting on our bad habits to regenerate regional economies.

The government's Gambling Bill allows for the creation of new super casinos across Britain. Opponents say that it will lead to an increase in gambling addiction and other social problems. The government responds that we should have the freedom to choose (while also emphasising that the Bill will place restrictions on other forms of gambling). For most of us, gambling is a minor social vice that we engage in once in a while as a form of entertainment, and a bet is no more likely to get us addicted than a pint is to make us alcoholics.

But the government is doing more than simply liberalising gambling laws - the Bill, along with other policies, will actively encourage the creation of casinos, all in the name of urban regeneration. As culture secretary Tessa Jowell told the Sunday Telegraph: 'New casinos could bring in around £5 billion of new investment in the first five years.... The fact is that regional casinos will bring real jobs, real investment into real areas.' So desperate is the government to import some easy investment to compensate for the lack of real economic development in the regions, Jowell ends up making gambling sound like a positive good.

The same kind of schizophrenia is evident in the government's alcohol policy: encouraging super-pubs to bring life back to city centres, then throwing its hands up in horror when some of the new customer-base have fights and vomit in the street. The government should allow us to blow our money in peace - but it shouldn't be touting for our business at the casino door.

'Opponents of new gambling law are snobs,' says Tessa Jowell, Sunday Telegraph, 24 October 2004

A Satanist in the Navy

There's a Satanist on board - but it's the ability to criticise an individual's belief systems that seems to have gone to hell.

Chris Cranmer, a 24-year-old naval technician, became a Satanist nine years ago. After four years in the Royal Navy, he has now won the right to practise his beliefs on board, including the right to a Satanist funeral should the worst happen. As an upstanding, equal opportunities employer, the Navy could hardly refuse. 'He went to his commanding officer with a request to practise his beliefs on board his ship and it was granted', a Ministry of Defence spokesman said. 'We believe he is the first avowed Satanist to serve in the military, but there is no official register of beliefs.'

So, an avowedly Christian country, whose head of state is also head of the Church of England, has found itself approving a worshipper of Beelzebub. This is a symptom of our relativist society, which views all beliefs as equal and a matter of personal choice. As long as you're not a racist or a paedophile, you can pretty much do as you please. Fortunately, there doesn't seem to be a lot of sacrificing of goats or virgins involved in Cranmer's beliefs. The Church says: 'Satan represents indulgence instead of abstinence; Satan represents vengeance instead of turning the other cheek; and Satan represents all of the so-called sins, as they all lead to physical, mental, or emotional gratification.'

You wonder why Cranmer has even bothered with Satanism when he could join the rest of society in worshipping me, me, me.

The devil and the deep blue sea: Navy gives blessing to sailor Satanist, Guardian, 25 October 2004

Holding MPs to account

MPs are complaining that there is a furore over their expenses claims. But they've been asking for it.

According to figures released for the first time by the House of Commons yesterday, the average MP earns £57,485 but claims an additional £118,000 in expenses. One MP claimed over £40,000 in postage costs, and another spent nearly as much travelling to and from her Scottish constituency. Peter Pike, MP for Burnley, called the figures 'quite misleading'. He told PA News that he employs two-and-a-half people in his constituency, and another in London. 'This is not about filling our boots,' said another MP, Stephen Pound. 'This is not about trousering a lot of money. This is about the money it takes to do the job.'

It doesn't help that one MP apparently claimed £90,000 for a house he did not possess. However, that case is exceptional and there is some justication for these figures given what MPs do. But they have only themselves to blame if accusations of sleaze follow. New Labour was elected on a platform attacking the Tory government less for its policies than for its MPs' sleaze and corruption - reinforcing a poisonous atmosphere in which politicians (and in fact, anyone with a political view) are widely regarded as being in the pay of some vested interest or other. Even the act of publicly detailing these figures for the first time looks like a tacit admission that they are not to be trusted.

The fact that MPs are spending more and more money also indicates a problem with what they do. They are spending less time defending broad-ranging political positions and more time as a kind of national complaints department lobbying ministers over trivia. Is this what we elected them for? Or are most MPs not so much a waste of money as a waste of space?

Average MP's expenses cost taxpayer £118,000, Guardian, 22 October 2004

Citius, altius, fortius interruptus

The parade for Britain's Olympic medallists took place yesterday. You may have missed it.

As many as 200,000 people lined the route or gathered in Trafalgar Square. But given the pre-event hype, it was a bit of a damp squib. Still, everyone did their best to talk it up. 'I was standing with Sir Steve Redgrave before the start and was getting a little bit concerned that people would not turn out in the numbers expected', admitted British Olympic Association (BOA) chief, Simon Clegg. 'But minutes before the event began the crowds became 10-12 deep in places.' Which means equally that the crowd was perhaps one deep in places, too. And how many of those watching were shoppers and passers-by rubbernecking?

Some blamed the poor turnout on the lack of press coverage, but that was hardly the case. The problem was the delay - the Olympics have long since faded from most people's memories. The gold medals were won seven weeks ago, but rather than organising an open-top bus and letting people get on with it, the BOA decided to wait until after the Paralympics in order to be seen as inclusive. In the meantime your average gold medallist has been busy making adverts and going on TV shows - squeezing in a homecoming parade when you've been home for nearly two months can be a bit tricky. Like the athletes' floats, the moment had passed.

As a result, this was not the Shared National Experience everyone had hoped for - although these days, Shared National Experiences tend to be shallow and fleeting, like our interest in synchronised diving. Not only was this a letdown for all those desperate for something to be a part of, but it is unlikely to do London's bid for the 2012 games much good either.

BOA chief defends Olympic parade, BBC News, 19 October 2004

Smoking out debate

First there was the proposal to ban smoking in public. Now some want a ban on talking about smoking in public.

The Royal Institution (RI) in London, a famous centre for scientific research and debate, has come under fire for allowing the Tobacco Manufacturers' Association to hire its rooms for a day, for an event entitled 'The Science of Environmental Tobacco Smoke'. The idea that there could be a debate about this subject is anathema to some. Ian Willmore from Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) told The Times (London): 'The RI normally does a great job promoting the public acceptance and understanding of science, and it shouldn't be collaborating with a group like this.' Professor John Britton, chairman of the Royal College of Physicians' tobacco advisory group, said he was 'surprised and disappointed' that the RI had accepted the booking. 'They want to create the impression that Britain's top scientists are debating these issues, and there is no such debate', he said.

Well if there isn't such a debate, there ought to be, because the science on passive smoking is not at all clear cut. The event organisers, desperate to be seen as balanced, have even invited ASH to speak - but questioning the assertion that passive smoking is harmful is now beyond the pale. Professor Susan Greenfield, head of the RI, sensibly pointed out that it was a private booking and it wasn't her place to interfere with the discussion. 'If we blocked this in a politically correct way, where would we be with the drinks industry or food companies? We would have Alcoholics Anonymous and the anti-obesity lobby objecting too', she said.

Just wait till someone decides to organise an event called 'Eating and Drinking are Good For You'...

Scientists clash over tobacco talks, The Times (London), 11 October 2004

Par for the coursework

Cheating ain't what it used to be. Just ask Prince Harry.

Harry's former teacher says she was told to help him with his A-level art coursework journal, telling him what to put down. As a result, he got a 'B' grade. An investigation was conducted by the exam board, Edexcel, but no irregularities were found. 'All such complaints are treated very seriously and always thoroughly investigated by experienced personnel', the board said. 'In this particular instance there was no evidence to support the claim. It was found to be unsubstantiated and the file closed.'

Hardly surprising, since what was once regarded as irregular is now part-and-parcel of the syllabus. Once upon a time, subjects were only examined in closed sessions. For subjects like art, portfolios of work were considered, too. But now, more and more qualifications are examined through coursework, allowing teachers to coach students and point them in the right direction. In fact, this flexible attitude to standards runs right through the educational system, from the first national tests through to university level.

Luckily for Harry, he won't need much of an education. He's off to join the Army.

Royal Family denies Harry cheated, BBC News, 10 October 2004

Votes for noodles

Republicans in Michigan are accusing Michael Moore of electoral fraud. Desperation, more like.

Moore has been visiting college campuses in the run-up to the presidential election and as part of the gig he invites first-time voters on stage. If they promise to vote, he gives them spoof prizes suitable for students - like noodles, beer or clean underwear.

Now even though this is tongue-in-cheek, it expresses a pretty low opinion of the electorate if you think the only way to inspire them is through gimmicks. It also reinforces a wider problem: if you present politics as so meaningless that it can't inspire someone with policies or principles, just takeaway food and alcohol, won't that increase cynicism in the long run? Moore doesn't even say who people should vote for, only that they should vote, which makes the whole exercise even more vacuous.

Meanwhile, Republicans are clearly suffering a sense-of-humour bypass if they can equate Moore's antics with electoral fraud. 'We want everyone to participate in this year's election, but not because they were bribed or coerced by the likes of Michael Moore', said Greg McNeilly, executive director of the Michigan state Republican Party. Both sides are showing signs of desperation. Republicans hate Moore, but don't know how to deal with him, and fear he might galvanise an anti-Bush vote. Moore's so desperate he's backing John Kerry, even though Kerry voted for the war in Iraq.

With politics in this state, how long before those students are demanding hard cash for their votes?

Moore in 'noodles for votes' row, BBC News, 6 October 2004

Tories find solace in miserable music

It's a sure sign that a party is in trouble when its leaders make films to prove they are regular people just like us.

Britain's Tories launched their annual conference with a film asking their top people about their tastes in music, hobbies, and early brushes with romance. Party leader Michael Howard stayed on safe ground, listing David Starkey's book on Elizabeth I as his current reading. Other responses were cringeworthy, like Tim Collins saying he'd bought the Will Young CD 'for his wife', or Theresa May refusing to talk about her first kiss in front of her husband.

Most of it simply provided material for various jokes at the Tories' expense. So David Cameron mentioned Pulp and The Smiths as 'miserable' music he found 'strangely uplifting'. Since he is the party's policy coordinator, his attempts at reaching the 'Common People' have clearly left him feeling that 'Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now'.

But perhaps the biggest hostage to fortune was Nicholas Soames expressing his admiration for Dido. Having changed their leader last year in a desperate attempt to reverse their fortunes (to no avail), Dido's biggest hit to date, 'White Flag', certainly seems to capture the mood among today's Tories.

Tories say what rocks their world, BBC News, 3 October 2004