Death in Iraq

A new study published in the Lancet today suggests that 655,000 more people have died in Iraq since the US-led invasion in 2003 than would be expected given previous estimates of mortality. Of these, 601,000 are estimated to be from violent causes.

The reaction to the figures has been one of either shock (amongst those against the war) or incredulity (amongst those that support it). There is certainly plenty of grounds for scepticism about the figures. Even the best known attempt to keep a track on deaths, Iraq Body Count, suggests a figure under 50,000 while the official administration figure is around 30,000. The Lancet figures are based on a random sample of 1,849 households spread across the country and extrapolate from the mortality figures in these households to the country as a whole. The researchers argue that the death rate has more than doubled, from 5.5 deaths per 1000 people, to 13.3 per 1000 people in the 40 months post-invasion.

Taking relatively small samples and extrapolating them in this manner has the potential to create substantial errors. However, the debate about methods and accuracy somewhat misses the point. In truth, no-one knows exactly how many have died but it is clearly a very large number. No matter which set of figures one uses, it is quite clear that Iraq has not experienced the quick and relatively painless transition to a peaceful democracy that was promised by Bush and Blair. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the Western intervention in Iraq has been a disaster.

The real point is that in the absence of a proper political debate about the war, much of the discussion has centred on claim and counter-claim about death tolls. As Brendan O'Neill pointed out on spiked in October 2005, elevating body count into the primary measure of success or failure has had deadly consequences for Iraqis.

'The politicisation of the dead by both camps in the West - the transformation of Iraqi civilians into effectively a bargaining chip in debates about the war - acts as an invitation to the insurgents to kill even more. When carnage in Iraq is presented automatically and internationally as a sign of American failure, when Western journalists call for more "blood and guts" to wake up the viewing public, then the insurgents are more than happy to provide it.

'This helps to explain why this particular insurgency seems hellbent on killing as many civilians as possible; why it executes "spectaculars" such as the killing of 26 children taking sweets from a US soldier or the grotesque incineration of 60 worshippers standing next to a petrol tanker outside a mosque. It was the coalition and its opponents that made civilian injuries and fatalities into a political issue, the defining issue of the war, in fact - and the insurgents exploit that in their dramatic attacks on civilian targets. Western handwringing effectively gives a green light to these murderous insurgents.

'The people of Iraq are paying a heavy price indeed for the degraded and morbid politics being imposed on their country.'

When body-counts kill, by Brendan O'Neill